The Law of Conservation of Attractive Profits and Samsung’s Record Quarter

It is being reported that Samsung will soon report a record quarter for its semiconductor business, taking it past even Intel for the first time ever. This is not totally unexpected and is an continuation of a upward trend that started back in 2014. It is also an expected consequence of the modularisation of the smartphone hardware industry as a whole, following a theory that Clayton Christensen originally coined “The Law of Conservation of Attractive Profits”. I have mentioned this quite a few times on this blog as well.

  1. Will Attractive Profits in the Android Ecosystem Move to Component Makers?
  2. More on Attractive Profits in the Cloud
  3. Android OEMs and The Law Of Conservation Of Attractive Profits
  4. The Law of Conservation of Attractive Profits And Personal Computing
  5. Google and the Law of Conservation of Attractive Profits

In a nutshell, the component manufacturers that can produce differentiated products will earn very good profits as the smartphone market becomes more modularised. This is similar to how Intel dominated CPUs during the PC era. 

This does not require near-monopoly power, and so this is what we are also seeing component manufacturers like MediaTek, Qualcomm and even Sony’s semiconductor business showing strong earnings, whereas on the other hand, almost all handset makers are struggling.

Going forward, I expect that the component industry as a whole will show strong profits and earnings. However the market is very competitive, and only those with competitive offerings will reap the benefits. This shifts the balance heavily towards already established incumbents, namely Samsung. Similar to how Intel successfully fended off the threat from AMD using Celerons, I doubt that cheap Chinese semiconductor players will ever unseat them, unless we again see an innovation like the smartphone which will disrupt the whole ecosystem.

How The HomePod Is A Very Typical Apple Innovation

Although I do not have a source handy, I recall that Steve Jobs mentioned in an interview long ago that back during the Apple II days, he had figured out that there were many more would-be software enthusiasts (programmers) than hardware geeks (those that could build and program one-board computers like the Apple I). This philosophy was reiterated in many Apple commercials, for example the Macintosh tag-line, “The computer for the rest of us.”

This, I believe, is the philosophy behind the HomePod. 

  1. Audiophiles today spend a lot of money on buying high-end equipment, contemplating the acoustics of their living room and where to place their speakers. It is reasonable to assume that there are vastly more people who would simply appreciate great music, compared to the number of us who are eager to learn and implement acoustic theory.
  2. Like the Apple II, the Mac and the iPhone, the HomePod is a vastly more integrated system compared to the mainstream alternatives at the time. It is part of Apple’s ecosystem for a great music experience. This has the effect of making the “Chasm” easier to cross, accelerating widespread adoption beyond early adopters. 
  3. It addresses an existing and proven market. We know that there is a market for good sound. We know that people still enjoy entertainment in the living room. Unlike the “smart speaker” market which is undeveloped and still highly speculative, we know the consumer profile to target with the HomePod.

With the HomePod, Apple is taking a proven strategy that has worked for them many times. In my opinion, there is very little doubt that it will easily surpass other “smart speaker” sales, simply by virtue of targeting a proven and vastly larger market.