This is the second in my series of posts where I make predictions for 2017. The first one was about Autonomous Driving. iPad sales growth 2016 was the year when we started to see revenue growth (but not unit growth) in the iPad. Many were quick to say that this was due to the introduction of the iPad Pro, but I think this misses the fundamental dynamic of what is happening in the tablet market. In fact, I have said in this blog multiple times, that most tech pundits have not understood the dynamic of the tablet market from the very beginning. The people who attribute revenue growth squarely on … Continue reading Predictions For 2017: iPad Sales Growth
With all the talk surrounding Apple’s new iPad Pro and its predicted assault into the corporate workplace, replacing legacy PCs, you would be forgiven for thinking that all is well in iPad/tablet land, and that sales are growing healthily. Except that it’s not. iPad sales have been flat/declining since 2013 and up till the last earning report from Apple, there has been no sign that it has even hit the bottom. Therefore, any analysis of what iPads future prospects are has to balance and ideally encompass two opposing trends. You need a holistic discussion. The following are a few things that we might consider; The majority of iPad use to … Continue reading How Will iPad Sales Rebound?
A recent blog on the New York Times described how Chromebooks are gaining in the U.S. education market (K-12). I have wrote quite a lot about Chromebooks on this block, and this article tells us that progress has been made on the part of Google. Of course, the market that is described in this article is quite small with only 13.2 million units annually, in comparison to over 300 million PC units (excluding tablets) sold worldwide, and as far as I know, Chromebook’s success in K-12 education has not expanded to other markets (including international). Nonetheless, this is good news for Google. The comments section is also very good, with … Continue reading Chromebooks and iPads in U.S. Schools
In Apple’s 2Q 2015 earnings report (3Q for Apple), they mentioned that despite a global decrease of iPad sales, Japan saw an increase. This prompted a brief conversation on Twitter in which I Googled around to find any further information and hopefully an explanation. Here, I would like to add a bit more detail to that Twitter conversation. First the IDC Japan report: 2015Q1 tablet shipments in Japan were +13.6% YoY (2.29M). Shipments to the consumer segment were +1.9% YoY (1.41M). Shipments to the business segments were +39.2% YoY (0.88M). In the business segment, Android and Windows tablet demand drove the increase with an emphasis on the education sector. Demand … Continue reading iPad sales growth in Japan, 2015 Q2
A lot of pundits are bemoaning over the flat sales of the iPad, declining sales of tablets overall, and the absence of radical improvements to the iPad lineup that would spark replacement sales. Flat sales would be a large issue if it was caused by less users using and enjoying the product. It would however not be an issue if people were holding on to their old product longer, but still actively using and enjoying it. That is to say, what matters is not the number of units sold per quarter. What matters is how many people are using it. One way to understand how many people are using iPads … Continue reading iPad Installed Base
Following the decline of iPad sales, pundits are trying to come up with theories to explain what they are seeing. Let’s take a look at some common ones. Market saturation theory The iPad was released in 2010, hence the market saturation theory is saying that market saturation was reached in a mere 4 years. That is rather incredible, although not completely unthinkable given the extremely rapid uptake of this product. The problem with this theory is that sudden flattening is not what market saturation looks like. Horace Dediu has charted the rise and fall of platforms since 1975, and we can see that a sudden flattening of sales is not … Continue reading Confusion As Pundits Try To Explain iPad Sales Decline
As reported in Apple’s Q2 2014 conference call, iPad sales significantly declined compared to the year ago quarter. A year ago, they sold 19.48 million units. This year, only 16.35 million. That’s a pretty big decline. It’s not something that was totally unexpected. As early as August 2013, I noted that iPad sales and tablets sales in general were losing steam and this could be a longer-term trend. I wrote many times how the idea that tablets are replacing PCs is a fallacy, and that the iPad was actually carving out a new market, not replacing an existing one (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, … Continue reading iPad Sales Decline
Philip Elmer-DeWitt has compiled analyst estimates for Q2 2014 iPad sales, and the consensus estimate is a 0.7% decline. We will have to wait until the earnings report to get the actual numbers, but given the recent trend in sales, I think that this is a very likely situation. The question is, what has happened? To understand this, you have to realize that the iPad is a “middle” product sitting in between smartphones and laptops. Hence the segment is susceptible to forces from both below and above, which potentially makes the dynamics of the market rather volatile. To illustrate, here are some of the things that could happen outside of … Continue reading iPad Sales Decline?
There is a lot of discussion on how tablets (iPads) are replacing PCs. I have been generally skeptical of this view based on tablet usage data (1, 2). The discussion for tablets replacing PCs is generally based on the decline of PC sales coinciding with the rise in tablet sales. This is true. However, there is little discussion on cause and effect. It is totally possible that these sales trends are not strongly related; they may simply have happened at the same time by coincidence. Also, there are many tech bloggers and analysts who claim that they have managed to get by on their iPads alone, and only using their … Continue reading How Are iPads Actually Being Used in the Enterprise?
Gregg Keizer of ComputerWorld wrote an article that corrected the misinformation spread by many journalists/bloggers a few weeks ago regarding Chromebooks sales in the “commercial channel”. The initial report by Stephen Baker of NPD was released on December 23rd, 2013 and mentioned that Chromebooks accounted for 21% of all U.S. notebook sales through the commercial channel for the first 11 months of 2013. The important word is “commercial channel”. Stephen Baker defines the commercial channel as follows; Baker defined the commercial channel as the distributors — like CDW and Ingram Micro — that many businesses, government agencies, schools and other organizations use to buy personal computers and other devices. His … Continue reading Chromebooks Are Competing With iPads